After giving out signs of fatigue several times in the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq dropped 1.5 percent Tuesday, losing the 50-day. More downward pressure is likely near term. At the same time, it is possible bears will end … Continued
The bull market is more than a decade old. Several metrics are at/near record territory. The energizer bunny keeps marching on. In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of new highs. The bull market has come a long way, sending the ratio of S&P 500 market cap to nominal GDP to near record territory. Unwinding is a matter of when, not … Continued
Small-caps get no love, even as large-caps rally to new highs. Non-commercials’ bearish position in Russell 2000 mini-index futures is near an 11-year high. At some point in the future, these holdings can provide a tailwind to the cash, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day. Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal. It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking on April 17 at 58.50, XLB (54.40) has been down for four straight … Continued