Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day. Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal. It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking on April 17 at 58.50, XLB (54.40) has been down for four straight … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
There was a massive drop in money-market assets last week. This is a potential green shoot should this continue, although bulls could not quite cash in on it last week. The mother of all potential green shoots – foreigners – … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 19-28 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (55.51) was rejected at 56. This resistance goes back a couple … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 233.4k, down 619. The rally in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.63 percent) from July 2016, when rates bottomed at 1.34 percent, ended last October … Continued
In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent. Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent. At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued