Trade Policy Uncertainty Notwithstanding, Equity Bulls Welcome Weakness Emanating From DeepSeek And Tariff Jitters For Now

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls bought weakness owing to DeepSeek and tariff jitters. Near term, the major indices act like they want higher prints. Mid- to long-term, the outlook gets muddied thanks to uncertainty owing to the new administration’s trade policy in particular. … Continued

4Q24 Earnings Season Begins Amid Likelihood Of Lower Rates On Long End N/T And Large- And Small-Caps At Crucial Technical Juncture

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Earnings Season is upon us. Fourth-quarter estimates for S&P 500 companies customarily have been gradually revised lower over the past several months. Heading into this, equities rallied huge last week, although the major US indices are off their December highs. … Continued

IWM Short Interest Jumps To 9-Month High As Cracks Open Up In Russell 2K Momentum

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

IWM short interest rose to a nine-month high at the end of March. This could potentially help the longs should they succeed in squeezing the shorts. The problem is (1) the Russell 2000 has had a massive rally in the … Continued

After Massive Rally Post-March Lows, Major Equity Indices Falling Under Their Own Weight

The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight, as they … Continued

Fed Likely To Again Use Balance Sheet As Tool, Stocks May React Differently

The Fed meets this week.  It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks.  With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued

US Jobs Picture Strong, Hence Its Significance In Signaling Inflection Point

posted in: Economy | 0

US economic data of late have been coming in strong.  Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18.  This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters.  As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued

Small-Cap Momentum Continues – Bulls Focused On Current Profit Trend, Not Revision

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With bulls latching on to every positive fundamental data, small-caps continue to build on breakout from three weeks ago. From the perspective of how they are acting and how they have outperformed their large-cap peers, small-caps are winning big. After … Continued