Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued
Ratio of personal interest income to payments declines for three years now Persistent rise in number of 65 years and over who are employed Suppressed rates past six years no good news for seniors In his inaugural blog post on Tuesday, … Continued
Last six years, U.S. high-yield bond issuance of $1.6tn This week, several Fed officials signal imminent rate hike this year Junk bonds – popular risk-on vehicle – not likely to take kindly to end of ZIRP A week ago, HYG, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week! In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week. On … Continued
Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil … Continued
Equity bulls seek to justify why Nasdaq of 2015 is not as bubbly as was Nasdaq of 2000 Bubble elsewhere – in VC, in biotech, and most importantly, in easy money Excesses driven by ‘this time is different’ psychology never … Continued
10-yr Treasury yield rises, diverging from loads of weaker-than-expected macro data recently There is no shortage of reason to argue for lower yield, even so sentiment can get extended Levels bond bulls will be drawn to if they believe rates … Continued
Major U.S. indices approaching/sitting on/slightly under critical technical levels U.S. indices give back Eurozone QE gains; key would be if European bourses do so U.S. bulls probably swimming against tide for now, but technical damage not irreparable U.S. equity indices … Continued
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures intensifying globally Fed favorite core PCE inflation persistently under two percent despite three QE’s Bonds do not see inflation as far as eye can see, signal slowdown in activity; stocks continue merry way Monday morning, investors will learn … Continued
As FOMC meets, markets will be looking for clues on rate-hike timing Consensus, which had been betting on mid-year hike, vacillating of late Lower-than-expected inflation, strong dollar excuses for Fed not to move The Federal Open Market Committee begins its … Continued