Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued
Major US equity indices are stalling. They rallied ferociously after bottoming on June 3 and are probably in need of digestion. Some rallies they put up in seven sessions! Intraday between that low and Tuesday’s high, the S&P 500 large … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 467.7k, up 91.5k. Friday’s intraday low of 2.05 percent came pretty close to testing the September 2017 low of 2.03 percent. A breach of … Continued
An oversold market, desperate for positive news – real or perceived – got some Tuesday. Major US equity indices rallied massively, closing right at/near important resistance. In the right circumstances for bulls, more upside is likely near term. Medium-term risks … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent. This week, it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities. Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week. Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult. Overbought … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Before large-caps were sold early May, traders were already gravitating toward risk-off. Stocks have rallied the past couple of sessions, but there are still no signs of full-on risk-on. Eight sessions ago, on May 6, the Russell 2000 small cap … Continued