Under pressure in recent weeks, major US equity indices ended last week right on support. In a seasonally favorable period, virtually no one thinks the latest decline can – and will – turn nasty. For that not to happen, bulls … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 10k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets dropped $31.4 billion from record $8.7 trillion a week ago. In early March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.4k, up 29.3k. As of last Tuesday, non-commercials added more to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. They are now most … Continued
With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Monday broke out of ascending triangle but only to reverse hard lower. That said, bulls have not quite given up yet. They continue to show up at/near shorter-term moving averages. Before this … Continued
The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 267.3k, down 1.3k. Bond bears (on price) have managed to defend support at low-to mid-1.40s on the 10-year treasury yield. On Tuesday last week, … Continued
Last week’s breakout in the Russell 2000 is diverging from small-caps’ profit momentum. It is possible the index is pricing in elevated earnings estimates for next year. It is equally possible the breakout occurred primarily due to short squeeze. In … Continued
Equity volatility looks to be on the brink of a rally. The only question is if it will sustain higher or momentum will soon peter out as has been the case since its explosion in February-March last year. VIX shed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 19, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 544, up 156.6k. In the 12 months to August, foreigners purchased $3.8 billion in treasury notes and bonds. As recently as February this year, … Continued