Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 50.2k, up 77.9k. No sooner than the 10-year treasury yield rallied past one percent than several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 27.7k, up 2.4k. After losing one percent last March, bond bears (on price) had been unable to reclaim the level. That ended Wednesday when … Continued
After repeated tries for months now, the 10-year Treasury yield finally broke through one percent on Wednesday. After Democrats won the two runoff Senate races in Georgia, markets are betting on more fiscal stimulus in quarters to come. Bond bears … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 29, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 25.2k, down 24.9k. FOMC minutes for the December 15-16 … Continued
The S&P 500 closed 2020 with a new high. Momentum was very strong in November and December. In the past, more gains followed in the following year. For that, several things have to fall into place, including how flows, margin … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued
After persistently remaining elevated for several weeks, investor sentiment is coming under pressure a little. Assuming institutions began distributing, retail would not be able to mop up all the supply. Record margin debt then becomes front and center. Equity bulls … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 15, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 27.4k, down 1.8k. Covid-19 vaccine or not, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not wearing rose-colored glasses as far as the US economy is concerned … Continued
Foreigners continue to wax enthusiastic about US equities. For their optimism, they have been rewarded handsomely. Although the Treasury publishes the related data with a lag, foreigners’ behavior is worth a close watch, as prior major peaks have coincided with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 8, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29.2k, up 3.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The two-day meeting ends on Wednesday with a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. This is … Continued