Last week’s hawkish FOMC minutes sent stocks lower. The Fed not only is accelerating the recently-begun tapering of bond purchases but also getting ready to hike rates. Chances are it will also begin to shrink its bloated balance sheet in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 4, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 276.9k, up 63.6k. The December 14-15 FOMC minutes, out Wednesday, revealed that the Fed was more determined to snatch the punch bowl away from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 213.3k, down 126k. FOMC minutes for the December 14-15 meeting come out on Wednesday. This was a meeting in which markets essentially forced the … Continued
The S&P 500 on Monday broke out of an eight-week congestion, and can rally further if technicals had their way. Buybacks and margin debt are front and center. In the past three years in particular, their tailwinds have been bigger, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 21, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 339.3k, up 65.4k. December thus far has been a month in which the 10-year treasury yield has been through lots of ups and downs … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 14, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 273.9k, up 6.9k. Once again, markets forced the Fed’s hands. Until this week’s FOMC meeting, futures traders were betting that the central bank would … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 7, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 267k, down 46.4k. This year’s final FOMC meeting takes place next week. Last week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, floated the idea of accelerated taper … Continued
VIX witnessed a spike reversal last week, before coming under massive downward pressure this week, helping equities. Equity bulls could receive further help should Friday’s CPI behave. It turns out VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. On Friday, it … Continued
Under pressure in recent weeks, major US equity indices ended last week right on support. In a seasonally favorable period, virtually no one thinks the latest decline can – and will – turn nasty. For that not to happen, bulls … Continued