On the weekly chart, SPY remains grossly overbought, but near term there is room to rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Options can help. US core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 1.96 percent year-over-year in May – essentially two percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 5, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 397.5k, down 73.5k. The FOMC meets next week. It is this year’s fourth meeting, and four more remain after this. The fed funds rate … Continued
Gold faced pressure after running into resistance six weeks ago. The subsequent drop cost the metal long-term support at $1,300-plus. Gold bugs were not ready to give in that easy, though. They defended a rising trend line from December 2016. … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 1-13 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) On Wednesday last week, XLB (57.24) tested a falling trend line from January 26 when … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders tend to be trend followers, and do a pretty good job of it except at inflection points. Chart 1 plots these traders’ holdings in Russell 2000 mini-index futures (ICE and CME combined) with the cash. The two … Continued
Back on June 1st, I talked about a naked call strategy on XLY, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF. To refresh, the ETF closed at 76.52 then. Weekly June 5th 76.50 calls were sold for $0.47. Last Friday, XLY closed at … Continued
Back on April 23rd, I wrote a piece on U.S. housing for See It Market (reposted here on 24th), arguing the importance of $26, and then $24, on the Home Construction ETF (ITB). The ETF ($26.32) closed at $27.45 on April … Continued