Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end.  For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month.  Consensus was for that … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week!  In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week.  On … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week.  Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent.  And these traders, in agreement, … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired.  Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again.  They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period.  Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent.  Early this year, … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week.  Daily indicators are now grossly overbought.  It is also right at … Continued

A peek into future through the futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 3 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield has risen from 1.65 to 1.94 in five sessions.  But it also dropped 52 basis points in January, and that … Continued

10-year Treasury yield seems to want to head higher for now

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

10-yr Treasury yield rises, diverging from loads of weaker-than-expected macro data recently There is no shortage of reason to argue for lower yield, even so sentiment can get extended Levels bond bulls will be drawn to if they believe rates … Continued

A peek into future through the futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 27 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Can we say squeeze?  Since the end of December, net shorts have dropped 59 percent, even as the 10-year yield has collapsed 50 … Continued