The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued
Unable to push through resistance, major US equity indices took a drubbing in recent weeks. Mid- to long-term, more downward pressure is probable. Near-term, it is looking like a toss-up between bulls and bears. The S&P 500 last week suffered … Continued
Investor sentiment is elevated. This is also evident in the CBOE put-to-call ratio and in VIX. Fund flows, however, continue to remain anemic even though the S&P 500 has rallied north of 20 percent from last October’s lows. Unless fund … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
VIX acts like it wants to go lower for now. Concurrently, VIX:VXV is in overbought territory. And both the CBOE put-to-call ratio and the ISEE index point to growing investor pessimism. For the first time in four weeks, VIX went … Continued
For the second time in five weeks, the S&P 500 charted out a bullish weekly hammer. Sentiment readings are suppressed, although non-commercials are at risk of being too bullish. Near-term, the path of least resistance is up – magnitude and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 26, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 114.8k, up 114.3k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s seventh meeting. After this, one more remain. At the September 21-22 meeting, … Continued
Equity volatility looks to be on the brink of a rally. The only question is if it will sustain higher or momentum will soon peter out as has been the case since its explosion in February-March last year. VIX shed … Continued
VIX recently broke a month-and-a-half rising trend line, subsequently coming under more pressure. In the right circumstances for volatility bears, the index could drop more near term, but a longer-term trend line support is unlikely to break. On June 29, … Continued
Major US equity indices are itching to break out. The question is, what then? Indices remain stretched on several timeframes. Longs have shown dogged determination but shorts are likely to decide if the momentum will have the staying power. Equity … Continued