Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 28, 2017. 10-year note: By Friday last week, fed funds futures were putting the odds of a rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 14-15) at 34 percent. By Monday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 14, 2017. 10-year note: On February 15, 10-year yields hit 2.52 percent before retreating. That high tagged a declining trend line from December 15 when yields hit 2.62 percent intraday. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 7, 2017. 10-year note: On January 26, 10-year yields began dropping after hitting 2.56 percent, lower than the 2.62 percent on December 15 – hence lower highs. In the meantime, they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 31, 2017. 10-year note: During his presidential campaign, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s easy monetary policy. Indeed, since June 2006, there have only been two 25-basis-point increases in the … Continued
The Russell 2000 small cap index (1370.70) is stuck in a rut at a higher plateau. Sort of. The index has gone sideways for seven weeks now. In the meantime, it rose to an all-time high of 1392.71 on December … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 24, 2017. 10-year note: Yields (cash) rose 14 basis points for the week to 2.48 percent, having risen as high as 2.56 percent intra-day Thursday. Earlier, they bottomed at 2.31 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2017. 10-year note: Bond bears near term have as good a chance as any to push long bonds still lower. TLT, the iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF, peaked this Tuesday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2017. 10-year note: This is what makes a market. Two different bond luminaries looking at the same asset and coming up with two different analyses/conclusions. The issue in question is … Continued