After weeks of staying subdued, there was some spring in volatility’s feet this week. Will it last or peter out as has been the case for the umpteenth time post-election? Tuesday’s 10-percent rally in spot VIX (12.81) was the largest … Continued
Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months? Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent. Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up. The US dollar index down. Ten-year Treasury yields down. This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance this year bolted out of the blocks in a strong fashion. In January and February, issuance totaled $296.9 billion, versus $252 billion in the corresponding period last year. High-yield, in particular, has had impressive issuance – … Continued
The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate. This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude had a lousy last week, collapsing 9.1 percent as well as losing both 50- and 200-day moving averages. On a closing basis, it also lost the rising trend line from the lows of February last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 16-28 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq – short interest ↑ 0.5% p/p; Nasdaq composite ↑ 0.1% … Continued
Eight years old! The bull market in U.S. equities, that is. After a harrowing 57-percent collapse that began in October 2007, the S&P 500 large cap index bottomed at an intraday low of 666.79 on March 6, 2009. Tuesday, it … Continued