To say that energy stocks are back in favor will be an exaggeration, but they have perked up of late. Off the January 20th intra-day low, XLE, the SPDR Energy ETF, has rallied north of 16 percent. That is in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed. This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event. No interest-rate decision … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 2.5 percent month-over-month in December, to $461.2 billion. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent in the month. Regardless if margin debt followed stocks lower or it was the other way round, what matters is that momentum … Continued
In the latest reporting period, U.S. equity shorts made it big. But rather than covering, they added more. It remains to be seen if they will continue to win out or are setting themselves up for a mini squeeze. During … Continued
Later today, markets will learn if, when it comes to the so-called Fed put, it is game as usual or winds of change are beginning to blow. The Fed put refers to a practice of reducing interest rates to deal … Continued
The so-called January barometer – as goes January, so goes the year – is on the verge of providing an early warning for 2016. January is believed to benefit from a seasonal anomaly favoring stocks. The January effect occurs when … Continued
Stocks are rallying. In fact, off the intra-day low last week, the S&P 500 index (1906.9) is already up 5.2 percent. Last Wednesday’s hammer reversal on the index looks similar to the ones on October 15, 2014 and August 24, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The International Monetary Fund lowers – again – its outlook for global economic growth this year. Warning of bumpier rides, especially in the … Continued
While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued
Crude oil peaked in June 2014. As months went by and the price decline picked up momentum, there were growing worries as to if this would force major oil exporters to begin to unwind their Treasury holdings. Obviously this would … Continued