Bulls’ resolve being tested
Major U.S. indices reversed from early strength yesterday. As a matter of fact, it took less than an hour – half an hour in most cases – before things began to turn south. From the S&P 500 large cap index … Continued
Short interest flat past three periods — shorts staying put despite rally
For the past three periods, short interest on both the NYSE and Nasdaq has essentially gone sideways. As of mid-April, NYSE short interest has gone from 15.69 billion to 15.68 billion to 15.66 billion (Chart 1), and on the Nasdaq … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week? The latter meets on 28-29. For the most part, macro data … Continued
U.S. Housing Data Mixed: Home Construction ETF (ITB) In Focus
This week is perfect to be discussing U.S. housing dynamics as the March sales numbers for existing and new homes were just published. The report was mixed. Sales of existing homes rose 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 … Continued
Dynamics between orders, inventories and C&I loans
Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum. Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014. One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued
Fed craves higher inflation yet pays interest on reserves!
Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation. … Continued
Bear call spread, to benefit from potential pressure on XLE near-term
XLE ($82.22), the energy ETF, seems to want to go lower near-term. Since the mid-January low of $71.22, it has carved out a pattern of higher lows, and higher highs, hence now finds itself in a slightly upward sloping channel. … Continued
Party hard, but dance near exit
Sideways move in stocks – just a pause or sign of fatigue after six-year run? Several different measures point to gradual buildup in complacency over the years Human nature not to want to leave party early, which is fine unless … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued
FXE range-bound enough next couple of weeks for iron condor?
Since the euro peaked in March last year, it has consistently been a loser’s game to try to pick a bottom. For the umpteenth of time, the currency — and FXE, the euro ETF — has looked like it was … Continued