Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
Gold is anything but golden these days. It has lost its luster. Not the metal, of course; it still glitters. As an asset, however, it is down in the dumps. Since its peak in September 2011 through the low this … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued
Up until recently, investor sentiment, as portrayed by Investors Intelligence’s weekly survey, was exceedingly bullish on U.S. stocks. Rightly so. The last time the S&P 500 Index had a 10-percent correction was in April-June 2012. (Although the September-October decline last … Continued
If we just focus on Charts 1 and 2 and consider how they have behaved in the past, equity bulls have reason to be optimistic. Because of the equity rout leading up to the August 24th low, both charts reached … Continued
It has been a consistent theme post-Great Recession. U.S. businesses have persistently disappointed when it comes to capital expenditures. It does not look like we will see a trend change anytime soon. The National Federation of Independent Business, representing small … Continued
Later this morning, August’s NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) optimism index is published. July was 95.4, up 1.3 points month-over-month. The index has been under pressure since the recovery high of 100.4 reached last December. The last time it … Continued
Gold continues to act as if it expects a hike as soon as this month. The FOMC meets on the 16th-17th. On Friday, post-August jobs report, GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF, shed 0.3 percent. The two-year Treasury yield was unchanged … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The IMF is at it again. This week, it reiterated its stance that advanced economies should maintain accommodative monetary policies. By that it … Continued
U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion. As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued