Within a year, US interest rates have gone up a lot, with the fed funds rate having risen from zero-bound to north of 4.5 percent currently. In the futures market, traders expect the benchmark rates to peak between 550 basis … Continued
Last Thursday, bulls used initial weakness in major equity indices owed to 4Q22 productivity report as an opportunity to buy. Friday, they bought more. More gains are likely ahead. Fed funds futures are very volatile. Traders are actively reacting real … Continued
US consumer spending is holding up, even as manufacturing is under tremendous pressure. Consumers have been dipping into savings owed to loads of government stimulus post-Covid. Bank deposits remain healthy but at the same time the rate of change year-over-year … Continued
Last Friday’s PCE report forced markets to reprice risk assets. Stocks dropped but at the same time closed significantly higher off sessions lows. Near-term, equities can rally – if nothing else just to unwind the daily oversold conditions. As the … Continued
January was up strongly this year. For the believers of the January barometer, this means an up year – or at least the odds are heavily stacked for that outcome. Nevertheless, the fact remains that a sticky inflation could throw … Continued
The fed funds rate has gone up more than 450 basis points since last March, and more tightening is on the way. This is yet to sufficiently make a serious dent in consumer inflation, even as economic data particularly surrounding … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 545.1k, up 133.7k. The 10-year treasury yield sits at a crucial juncture. It ended this week at 3.48 percent. Around 3.4 percent lies important … Continued
Even as the major US equity indices have rallied into crucial resistance, the share of stocks above their 50-day is at/near levels where risks of reversal are very high. Stocks have come a long way the past three months. The … Continued
With two consecutive weeks of rallies, major US equity indices closed last week right at/near crucial resistance. This is taking place even as companies are getting ready to report 4Q22 earnings, which over the last multiple weeks have been persistently … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 411.4k, up 27.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has his hands full. He wants to slow down the US economy to bring inflation under … Continued