Amidst Mixed Macro Signals Plus Other Divergences, New Highs In Major US Equity Indices

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Amidst mixed signals in the economy and divergences with the bond market and crucial metals, among others, US stocks continue to rally to new highs. US inventories are building – again. In October, manufacturing and trade inventories rose 0.2 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 178.9k, down 43k. As expected, the Fed stood pat.  This week’s FOMC meeting – the year’s eighth and last – left the fed funds … Continued

Russell 2000 Breakout, Until Proven Otherwise, Deserves Benefit Of Doubt

The Russell 2000 has broken out.  There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points.  But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  It is this year’s eighth and last meeting.  Markets do not expect the Fed to move.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion.  … Continued

Rapid Rise In Budget Deficit And Treasury Issuance Met By Foreign Selling Of US Bonds

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 12-month total of US budget deficit just crossed $1 trillion.  Treasury issuance is well over $900 billion.  Foreigners at the same time have been reducing exposure to US notes and bonds.  If the trend persists, this is bound to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76.  Since that peak … Continued

Bulls, With Momentum, Need Several Non-Cooperating Metrics To Cooperate Better, Else…

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better.  In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower.  Non-commercials are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent.  Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued