The U.S. economy has grown sub-par post-Great Recession – an average of 2.1 percent versus a long-term average of 3.2 percent going back to 2Q47. In the past four quarters, it has not even managed to grow at 2.1 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Fed stopped short of signaling a rate hike near term. That said, the statement also said “near-term risks to the economic outlook … Continued
NYSE margin debt fell again. June was down $3.8 billion month-over-month to $447.4 billion. Since it peaked in April last year at $507.2 billion, margin debt is now down $59.8 billion – or 11.8 percent from the peak. The S&P … Continued
As of last Thursday (July 21st), as per S&P Dow Jones Indices, 123 of S&P 500 companies reported their 2Q16 results, 81 of them beat on an operating basis, 23 missed and 19 met consensus estimates. On a reported basis, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth. So the saying goes. Why bring this up? There is a sudden uptick … Continued
Have foreigners ceased to be a factor in the market for both U.S. equities and treasury securities? Makes you wonder looking at the Treasury International Capital System data. May’s numbers were released this Monday, and there was not much change … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
The pace of U.S. corporate bond issuance slowed in June. Corporations issued $110.8 billion in non-convertible debt and $3 billion in convertible debt last month. Of non-convertible debt, which is what Chart 1 portrays, investment-grade (IG) was $86.8 billion and … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
Are U.S. sovereign bonds in a blow-off phase? Tough to say, but they have had quite a rally. Yields on both 30-year bonds and 10-year notes this week made new all-time lows. Post-Brexit, demand for long bonds from major countries, … Continued