Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Major US equity indices are itching to break out. The question is, what then? Indices remain stretched on several timeframes. Longs have shown dogged determination but shorts are likely to decide if the momentum will have the staying power. Equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 8, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 173.4k, up 118.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Not much is expected to occur … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 1, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 54.8k, down 49.6k. In all likelihood, a trial balloon was floated this week. On Wednesday, Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed president who becomes a … Continued
Gold has rallied for four straight weeks – up more than 14 percent from early March. Last week, the metal just about tested crucial resistance at $1,920s. Conditions – daily in particular – are overbought, and a pause is the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 25, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 104.4k, up 72.7k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets declined $19.3 billion week-over-week to $7.9 trillion but the prior week’s $7.92 trillion … Continued
Volatility bulls have not been able to sustain rallies. Amidst this, non-commercials have been quietly reducing net shorts in VIX futures. If the past is any guide, VIX does not peak until these traders go net long or get close. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 18, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 31.7k, up 30.4k. Apparently, some FOMC members at the April 27-28 meeting signaled that they were ready to discuss scaling back the Fed’s bond … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 11, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 1.2k, up 8.5k. FOMC minutes for the April 27-28 meeting will be made public on Wednesday. The meeting was a non-event – pretty much. … Continued
Equity bulls used the Yellen dip last Tuesday as an opportunity to add to risk, not reduce. The Fed is making sure liquidity remains plentiful, and the short end of the yield curve is cooperative. In this environment, VIX on … Continued