Last week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met, market participants were divided as to whether or not the Fed would raise rates. Most economists expected a hike, as did the short end of the yield curve; two-year Treasury … Continued
SMH, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF, does not act well. What might be the message for semis in particular and stocks in general? Before we try to draw an out-and-out negative conclusion from this, let us remember that between the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued
Since China devalued its currency on August 11, there has been a lot of speculation as to if it has been selling U.S. Treasuries in order to defend the yuan. With the economy having slowed down and the Shanghai Composite … Continued
Later this morning, August’s housing starts will be released. In recent months, momentum has picked up. July was 1.21 million units (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) – the highest since 1.26 million in October 2007. In non-recessionary periods, it … Continued
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today, the significance of which cannot be stressed enough. A lot is riding on this. After this meeting, there will be two more left this year – one late October and … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been conflicting signals coming out of the job market. The unemployment rate is low – nearly cut in half from 10 percent in October 2009 to 5.1 percent in August. … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued
If we just focus on Charts 1 and 2 and consider how they have behaved in the past, equity bulls have reason to be optimistic. Because of the equity rout leading up to the August 24th low, both charts reached … Continued