Back in the middle of December, when the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nine years, the FOMC’s dot plot optimistically forecasted four quarter-point hikes this year. On December 16th – the day the FOMC statement came out … Continued
U.S. corporate earnings have been in serious deceleration. This is no news. They have been decelerating for a while now. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have declined for five straight quarters annually. Chart … Continued
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it. Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
CNBC.com ran an interesting story last Thursday (March 3rd) on resurging home flipping in the U.S. Turns out, according to RealtyTrac, nearly 180,000 family homes and condos were flipped in 2015, making up 5.5 percent of all sales. This was … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 1, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Unbelievable! The Japanese government is getting paid to borrow money for a decade. For the first time ever, Japan sells 10-year bonds at … Continued
U.S. small-caps are rallying. Rallying hard. Harder than several of their peers. Since the intra-day low on February 11th, the Russell 2000 small cap index is up just north of 14 percent, also breaking out of 1035. This level approximates … Continued
NYSE margin debt continues to deflate. Right before the 2008/2009 bear market ended, margin debt shrunk to $173.3 billion in February 2009. It then gradually rose. The previous high of $381.4 billion in July 2007 was surpassed in April 2013 … Continued
Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since. With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour. Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP). This was totally … Continued