10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid. A … Continued
Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued
Market expectations for rate hike next year runs risk of disappointment With monetary quiver nearly empty, Fed very much focused on wealth effect Job even more difficult, given adverse effects of cheap money beginning to loom Markets are sending mixed … Continued
U.S. capacity utilization inched up 0.8 percentage point month-over-month in November. The 80.1 reading is the highest since 80.3 in March 2008. It is inching ever closer to the four-decade-plus average of 80.6 (going back all the way to January … Continued
Soft fundamentals, but gold continues to hold up well Large speculators added further to their net longs in gold futures Overbought near-term, but potential weakness likely gets bought near support Trend followers do what they do best. Large speculators are … Continued
U.S. unemployment claims near historical lows, job cuts subdued In a sea of stability, could an ocean of troubles be lurking? Crude drop in oil price has potential to throw a curve It is always cheap – and prudent – … Continued
U.S. retail sales jumped 0.7 percent month-over-month in November. Growth was well spread out – from cars to clothing to furniture to electronic items. Gasoline, of course, was down – down 0.8 percent m/m. But that drop was not sufficient … Continued
JOLTS data came out this AM, and continues to point toward a healthy job market. This data series only goes back to 2004, but as the chart below shows, it correlates well with U.S. non-farm payroll. Both leading up to … Continued
Not to beat a dead horse, but the current U.S. recovery falls short in many ways. One of which is wages. Six years into the recovery, the share of national income continues to tilt heavily toward corporations. Labor’s is just … Continued
Inability of offensives to take the lead has been a thorn in the side of rally since Oct 15th low Outperformance last week of XLY vs. XLP and HYG vs. LQD sign of trend change? Duel on between seasonally favorable … Continued