Amidst Persistent Downward Revision In S&P 500 Op Earnings, 2018 Starts Out At > $147!

The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times.  Take your pick.  The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

In Need To Recapture Shorter-Term Moving Averages, Bulls Start Out 2017 Forcefully

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

In 2016, the so-called January barometer – the hypothesis that the first month sets the tone for the year – failed to deliver. The S&P 500 large cap index lost 5.1 percent last January, and was down 10.1 percent by … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year.  Two … Continued

Margin Debt Essentially Flat Since April ’15 Peak, Even As S&P 500 8% Higher

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

November NYSE margin debt increased 3.4 percent month-over-month to $500.4 billion.  This is the fourth time in the series’ history it has crossed $500 billion.  The first one occurred in April 2015 when debt rose to $507.2 billion – a … Continued

Post-Election Winners Look Fatigued, Rotation Candidate Not Yet In Focus

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. small-caps have had a phenomenal run post-election.  From November 8 close through the intra-day all-time high 1392.71 on December 9, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped 16.5 percent.  It has come under slight pressure since that high, but … Continued