Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
For second week running, hedge funds stayed net long VIX futures Three times since 2009 when this has happened, equities have gone on to rally Ideal scenario: SPX goes lower and successfully tests 1900, just in time for year-end rally … Continued
VIX looks to be setting up to move higher near-term Medium-term technicals halfway through unwinding overbought conditions Long-term, potentially saucer bottom in making, could be headed a lot higher in months to come Last Friday, even as all the major … Continued
Shorts continued to raise bets, with short interest at multi-year highs October 15th reversal followed by sharp advance probably caused short-covering With QE gone and broken trendline resistance on S&P 500 intact, shorts could get active again Bulls probably took … Continued
Spot VIX has had topsy-turvy ride this month First time in three years, hedge funds went net long VIX futures last week On three other occasions past five years, this preceded lower VIX in outer weeks/months The VIX has done … Continued
James Bullard’s recent dovish comments fail to ignite interest in gold Possibility of triple-bottom reversal, but needs confirmation With recent thrust waning, near-term bias is down Since its peak in September 2011 at $1,924/ounce, gold has been trapped in a … Continued
Long-term, S&P 500 index still within six-year trend channel November-2012 trendline broken late September in midst of recent decline Possible test of that broken trendline potentially ideal place for shorts to build positions In the big scheme of things, despite … Continued
Post-October 15th reversal, equities have come too far too soon Sentiment less frothy, but in worse-case scenario has room to go a lot lower Having expended lots of energy past several sessions, bulls lack buying prowess for now Phew! Some … Continued
In wake of early September breakout, U.S. dollar in limbo Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior downward trend Sentiment too bullish, reflected in large speculators’ futures position, raising odds of mean reversion The U.S. … Continued
Bulls desperately need to retake 200-dma on S&P 500 Potential unwinding of oversold technical conditions can act as tailwind Failure to build on Wednesday’s hammer reversal pattern will mean rockier times down the line Last week, we discussed the significance … Continued