The S&P 500 is up nearly 21 percent from last October’s low. Yet, US-based equity funds continue to bleed, and margin debt is lower from October through April. If equity bulls cannot mend the situation soon, non-commercials, with most net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 692.4k, down 39.3k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 731.7k, down 17.4k. This week, April’s CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) were published. Both showed continued decelerating trend in inflation … Continued
Small-cap bulls once again were forced to defend the lower bound of the 1700-1900 range in place since January last year. The Russell 2000 just does not respond to the optimistic growth forecasts in earnings for this year and particularly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.1k, up 8.9k. The Federal Reserve’s job is not getting any easier. On Wednesday, post-FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell dropped hints that they were … Continued
After hiking 10 consecutive times totaling 500 basis points, the Jerome Powell-led Fed hinted at a pause on Wednesday. Markets are now pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by year-end. Powell – focused on inflation – promptly dashed hopes for rate … Continued
Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Post-SVB collapse, community and regional banks have come under shorts’ attack. Bruised KRE, having sliced through the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation last month, has more to go on the downside should the pattern complete. The number of commercial banks … Continued
The next couple of weeks are big for tech earnings. MSFT, GOOG and AMZN report this week, and AAPL the next, among others. Leading into this, consensus estimates have trended lower, and stocks have rallied to multi-month highs. Concurrently, market … Continued