For the second week in a row, Investors Intelligence bulls were just under 65 percent. As elevated as this reading is, we are in a seasonally favorable period. If bulls are to take advantage of this, they would have to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 24, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 115k, down 37.3k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.84 percent) has come under … Continued
Company buybacks are having quite a bit of a dry spell. As corporate boards act thrifty this year, it has not had much impact on stocks. The buyback shortfall is being offset by bulled-up foreigners and investor willingness to take … Continued
Small-caps and tech continue to diverge. Post-vaccine news, longs are gravitating toward the former and leaving the latter. Amidst this, signs of fatigue are also showing up on the S&P 500, while VIX acts like it wants to rally. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 17, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 152.3k, up 57.7k. Both the 50- and 200-day moving averages closed Thursday at 0.77 percent. The former is rising and the latter dropping. Friday, … Continued
Pfizer’s positive vaccine news on Monday last week elicited favorable investor response. Moderna’s positive news this Monday generated a lukewarm response. Fatigue is setting in. Major US equity indices are in overbought territory, particularly daily, with several sentiment readings already … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 10, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Veterans Day holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 94.6k, up 100.3k. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield (0.91 … Continued
Last Monday, major equity indices all opened up strong but by Friday they diverged. Small-caps led, while tech lagged. Despite this, they all closed out the week at/near resistance. Breakout will further push them into extended territory. A breather is … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
US corporations continue to aggressively issue debt in the bond market. Even amidst this supply, demand remains good. Both LQD and HYG are near their record highs. Besides the Fed essentially acting as a backstop, corporate boards are probably also … Continued