On Inauguration Day, US stocks pushed further into record territory. Concurrently, several indicators already find themselves in uncharted territory. The ongoing earnings season can decide if already-extended further extends into extended territory or unwinding begins. US stocks welcomed the Joe … Continued
Last week, Fed officials threw cold water on incipient taper talk, making it clear they would continue to purchase treasury securities. This followed a backup this month in rates in the long end of the treasury yield curve, with the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 50.2k, up 77.9k. No sooner than the 10-year treasury yield rallied past one percent than several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, … Continued
The Russell 2000 rose to yet another new high on Tuesday, having surged more than 120 percent since last March. A lot of optimism is built in. Earnings are expected to improve massively this year from last year’s loss. Be … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 27.7k, up 2.4k. After losing one percent last March, bond bears (on price) had been unable to reclaim the level. That ended Wednesday when … Continued
After repeated tries for months now, the 10-year Treasury yield finally broke through one percent on Wednesday. After Democrats won the two runoff Senate races in Georgia, markets are betting on more fiscal stimulus in quarters to come. Bond bears … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 29, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 25.2k, down 24.9k. FOMC minutes for the December 15-16 … Continued
The S&P 500 closed 2020 with a new high. Momentum was very strong in November and December. In the past, more gains followed in the following year. For that, several things have to fall into place, including how flows, margin … Continued
Some early signs of fatigue are showing up on the Russell 2000, which has more than doubled since March. Conditions are extended. A week ago yesterday, the small cap index was 34.7 percent above its 200-day. Although this in and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued