Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 281.1k, down 121.9k. Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October through the intraday low seven sessions ago of 1.98 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
NYSE and Nasdaq short interest is up a decent amount since end-April. Nasdaq’s in particular is the highest since March 2016. The index rallied after bottoming early this month. At least until the middle of the month, shorts were staying … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued
Gold is regaining its lost luster. Last week, it staged what could turn out to be a major breakout. If genuine, the metal in due course could head toward retracing 61.8 percent of the September 2011-December 2015 decline. Gold ($1,400.10) … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from record highs. They have done so without much help from foreigners and margin debt. Bulls deserve kudos, but then again, how long can this go on? US indices are within … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued
Major US equity indices are stalling. They rallied ferociously after bottoming on June 3 and are probably in need of digestion. Some rallies they put up in seven sessions! Intraday between that low and Tuesday’s high, the S&P 500 large … Continued
US stocks rallied strongly last week. Bulls enjoy momentum right now. That said, risk-on is not full-on. What transpires at 2890s on the S&P 500 can be a tell near term. May’s employment report was mixed at best and disappointing … Continued