Margin Debt Diverges With Stocks, VIX Maintains At Higher Plateau

The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high.  Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued

Some Potential Green Shoots From Money Markets, Although Foreigners Send Different Message

There was a massive drop in money-market assets last week.  This is a potential green shoot should this continue, although bulls could not quite cash in on it last week.  The mother of all potential green shoots – foreigners – … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent.  … Continued

Investors Intelligence Bulls Probably Right Not To Get Giddy

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Despite the massive rally in stocks since December lows, Investors Intelligence bulls are not giddy, though NAIIM members are not quite sending the same message.  Ditto with the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day. Investors Intelligence bulls continued … Continued

Equity Indices Eyeing Fresh Highs – Trader Reaction To Earnings Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs.  Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure.  Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture.  Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million.  … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 16-29 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In October last year, XLB (57.42) lost support just north of 56, which then repeatedly … Continued

With Massive Gains Past 3 Months, Bulls Stay Put; Reversal Risks Rising Looking At VIX Futures

Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows.  Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory.  Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week.  Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued

Ahead Of Low-Bar Earnings Season, Russell 2000 Right Under Crucial Resistance

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance.  After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling.  How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued