Gold Regains Some Luster, Runs Into Resistance – How Non-Commercials, ETF Flows Behave At Support Telling

Gold has regained its shine.  Sort of.  In the past three months, the metal has rallied 23 percent.  At the same time, it is running into important resistance, including Fibonacci and eight-year horizontal.  The metal likely takes a breather near … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued

For Several Weeks, Bulls Bought Support, Bears Sold Resistance – Latter Could Get Active N/T

August for the most part saw bulls buy support and bears sell resistance.  This worked out pretty well for both camps.  In essence, after a late-July/early-August brief selloff, both put their foot down.  Last week, major US equity indices rallied … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding.  Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued

Too Soon To Say It’s Risk-On, But Bulls Continue To Defend Important Support on Russell 2000

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Once again, small-cap bulls defended two-year support on Russell 2000.  Oversold momentum indicators are itching to move up.  But there is no sign of full-on risk-on just yet.  There is plenty of overhead resistance where bears are likely to get … Continued

Upward Trend in Nasdaq, NYSE Short Interest Intact For 3 ½ Months – Could Help Bulls If They Can Force Squeeze

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

In the two-week period ended mid-August, short interest continued to rise on both NYSE Group and Nasdaq, respectively up 4.4 percent and 1.8 percent period-over-period.  In three and a half months, short interest has gone up 13.2 percent and 7.7 … Continued

Major Indices Cling On To Support, Breach Likely, As Are Reversal Odds For Relief Rally

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

There is confusion in the markets.  Several times this month, bulls tried to take momentum by the horns, but only to get gored, including last Friday.  Bears have not had a smooth ride either.  Amidst this back-and-forth action, major US … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent.  It offered €2 … Continued

Stars Lining Up For Decent Rally In Stocks

After rallying in June and most of July, stocks began selling off late last month.  Bulls nonetheless have managed to defend major support, even as stars seem to be lining up for them – magnitude and duration notwithstanding. Bulls are … Continued