Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation. Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy. But it can get frothier. This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued
In two-plus months, gold dropped just shy of eight percent. With two more sessions to go this week, bulls have managed to defend $1,440s-50s. Rally odds have gone up near term. Gold bugs are putting their foot down. This week’s … Continued
Since bottoming early last month through last week’s high, The Nasdaq rallied more than 10 percent. Shorts contributed, as short interest dropped 1.1 percent last month. Short interest remains elevated. Bulls are eyeing a squeeze. For that, they need to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent. Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied strongly in the past month. Investors Intelligence bulls expanded eight percentage points in the last three weeks. In the options market, investors are taking off protection they bought earlier. Greed has replaced fear. Unwinding is the … Continued
US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now. Markets are not a least bit bothered. They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy. In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets. Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease. Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 122.6k, down 41.1k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.75 percent) put in a higher low. On September 3, rates fell to 1.43 percent, which was … Continued