Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 22, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 2.3k, up 36.6k. Doves have won – for now. In the wake of a slightly hawkish tilt in last week’s FOMC meeting in which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Major US equity indices are itching to break out. The question is, what then? Indices remain stretched on several timeframes. Longs have shown dogged determination but shorts are likely to decide if the momentum will have the staying power. Equity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 8, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 173.4k, up 118.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Not much is expected to occur … Continued
Amidst continuation of aggressive accumulation of assets by the Federal Reserve and a trial balloon last week by Philadelphia Fed president of eventual tapering, large- and small-caps are going their separate ways – the former liking soft economic data and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 1, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 54.8k, down 49.6k. In all likelihood, a trial balloon was floated this week. On Wednesday, Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed president who becomes a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 25, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 104.4k, up 72.7k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets declined $19.3 billion week-over-week to $7.9 trillion but the prior week’s $7.92 trillion … Continued
Volatility bulls have not been able to sustain rallies. Amidst this, non-commercials have been quietly reducing net shorts in VIX futures. If the past is any guide, VIX does not peak until these traders go net long or get close. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 18, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 31.7k, up 30.4k. Apparently, some FOMC members at the April 27-28 meeting signaled that they were ready to discuss scaling back the Fed’s bond … Continued
Last week, equity bulls stepped up in time to save a rising 14-month trend line on the S&P 500. A similar trend line has been breached on the Nasdaq 100, which acts weak. It is just a matter of time … Continued