CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: That this is even being discussed in the press and among economists is a sign of how insane things have gotten in central … Continued

S&P 500 Stages Yet Another Breakout — Although Feebly — Likely Wouldn’t Hold

In early April, the S&P 500 (2080.73) is rejected by a July 2015 declining trend line.  After a subsequent slight pullback, the index reenergizes itself and goes for that resistance again.  Last Thursday, it succeeds (Chart 1).  But is the … Continued

Despite Massive Rally Off Feb 11th Low, Investor Sentiment Not Effusive

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

The magnitude of the equity rally the past couple of months has surprised many. Off the February 11th low through Thursday’s high, the S&P 500 index rallied 15 percent. This, despite the fact that equity flows into U.S.-based funds have … Continued

Stocks, Facing Several Headwinds, Vulnerable Near Term

U.S. stocks look vulnerable here.  The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued

Big Stock Move Upon Us? Why Profits/Buybacks Likely Hold Key

Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows.  From low … Continued

Stocks Defy Expectations Last Five Weeks – VIX:VXV Flash Warning Signal

Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77).  Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 15, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Major central banks are in a race as to who can ‘shock and awe’ the markets the most. On January 29th, Haruhiko Kuroda, … Continued

Did Fri Breakout On S&P 500 Change Facts Enough For Bears To Change Mind?

“When the facts change, I change my mind.  What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it.  Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given.  They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued