The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 2, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Mixed messages from two major central banks! On Friday last week, Haruhiko Kuroda, BoJ governor, decided not to live up to markets’ lofty … Continued
A crucial test probably lies ahead for the S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1). The index, trapped in a sideways pattern since essentially February last year, broke out nearly a month ago – potentially a huge development, with the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Fed stopped short of signaling a rate hike near term. That said, the statement also said “near-term risks to the economic outlook … Continued
NYSE margin debt fell again. June was down $3.8 billion month-over-month to $447.4 billion. Since it peaked in April last year at $507.2 billion, margin debt is now down $59.8 billion – or 11.8 percent from the peak. The S&P … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth. So the saying goes. Why bring this up? There is a sudden uptick … Continued
After a 13-session, heady rally off June 27th lows, U.S. stocks are beginning to reek of complacency. The question is, is it now time to turn contrarian or things might stay complacent for a little while longer? Take put-to-call ratios. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued