Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from their respective highs. Daily momentum indicators are extended. Breakout retests are the path of least resistance. The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point cut to a range of 175 to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Small-business optimism continues to remain near all-time highs, although several sub-indexes are diverging, including profit trend, which the Russell 2000 closely tracks. The NFIB optimism index rose 1.4 points month-over-month in July to 104.7. This was the 32nd consecutive month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
The Fed eased. This was expected. Chair Powell suggested it is not going to be a long rate-cutting campaign. This was unexpected. US equities took it on the chin Wednesday, and look vulnerable, particularly if bulls are unable to defend … Continued
Later today, the Fed will have cut its policy rate. Historically, this correlates with how both the economy and stocks perform – down. Later today, the Fed will have eased – probably by 25 basis points, to a range of … Continued
Large-caps keep making new highs. Should small-caps, which currently sit at crucial juncture, manage to break out, risk-on sentiment can get a tailwind, driving several indicators – already extended – to dangerously extended territory. US equity indices keep making new … Continued
Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased. Besides being a first cut in nearly 11 years, the move has the potential to also impact the bank’s balance sheet and commercial bank earnings. The Fed is all set to reduce its … Continued
Small-caps get no love, even as large-caps rally to new highs. Non-commercials’ bearish position in Russell 2000 mini-index futures is near an 11-year high. At some point in the future, these holdings can provide a tailwind to the cash, as … Continued