Monthly Candles A Warning Shot Across Equity Bulls’ Bow; March Could Be Interesting

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Two months into the year, January and February have traded similarly – early strength followed by weakness in the dying sessions. Equity bulls’ inability to hold on to gains comes amidst a spike in long rates. Short rates are behaving, … Continued

Fed Succeeds In Driving Investors To Take On Risk And Go Up Risk Curve, But End Game Is Bound To Be Painful Regardless

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued

Amidst Elevated Optimism And Record Margin Debt, Investor Reaction To 4Q Results From Top 6 Companies This Week And Next Telling

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Post-earnings stock reaction to the leading US financials has been negative. Ditto with how INTC and IBM were treated. This week and next, the top six companies report. Amidst elevated investor optimism and surging margin debt, reaction to their results … Continued

2020 In With A Whimper, Out With A Bang – Equity Bulls Have High Hopes For 2021

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 closed 2020 with a new high. Momentum was very strong in November and December. In the past, more gains followed in the following year. For that, several things have to fall into place, including how flows, margin … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued

Raising Distribution Risks, Pros Slightly Pull Back Enthusiasm, Retail Still Gung-ho

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After persistently remaining elevated for several weeks, investor sentiment is coming under pressure a little. Assuming institutions began distributing, retail would not be able to mop up all the supply. Record margin debt then becomes front and center. Equity bulls … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 24, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 115k, down 37.3k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.84 percent) has come under … Continued

FINRA Margin Debt Inching Closer To May ’18 High, Has Tight Correlation With Small-Caps, Which Are Going Parabolic

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

As major US equity indices post record highs, margin debt is inching ever closer to its high from May 2018. In all probability, November will have made a new high in margin debt. Amidst all this risk-on behavior, it is … Continued