Buybacks made a comeback in 1Q21. Nonetheless, they are no longer as strong a tailwind for equities as they were in 2018 and 2019. Margin debt and foreigners continue to support stocks, and will pose problems once they turn. S&P … Continued
The energizer bunny marches on. The S&P 500 rallied to a fresh high last week. This time around, the otherwise-laggard Nasdaq 100 joined in, meekly breaking out to a new high. Next week, the top six tech outfits are set … Continued
Two months into the year, January and February have traded similarly – early strength followed by weakness in the dying sessions. Equity bulls’ inability to hold on to gains comes amidst a spike in long rates. Short rates are behaving, … Continued
Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued
Major US equity indices posted new highs last week, but only to reverse and give back those gains. By Friday, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 were all sitting on channel support. Bulls cannot afford a … Continued
Post-earnings stock reaction to the leading US financials has been negative. Ditto with how INTC and IBM were treated. This week and next, the top six companies report. Amidst elevated investor optimism and surging margin debt, reaction to their results … Continued
The S&P 500 closed 2020 with a new high. Momentum was very strong in November and December. In the past, more gains followed in the following year. For that, several things have to fall into place, including how flows, margin … Continued
Some early signs of fatigue are showing up on the Russell 2000, which has more than doubled since March. Conditions are extended. A week ago yesterday, the small cap index was 34.7 percent above its 200-day. Although this in and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued
After persistently remaining elevated for several weeks, investor sentiment is coming under pressure a little. Assuming institutions began distributing, retail would not be able to mop up all the supply. Record margin debt then becomes front and center. Equity bulls … Continued