Having raised the fed funds rate by 525 basis points over 14 months, the Fed is under pressure to stop, but is not willing to commit to that. The culprits are sticky core inflation and financial conditions that are easing. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 629.6k, down 5.6k. The FOMC meets next week. Ahead of this, the fed funds rate was left unchanged in the June meeting, pausing for … Continued
The FOMC dot plot yesterday surprised many with expectations of two more 25-basis-point hikes by December. Futures traders are only betting on one hike in July. Several times over the last several months, they have been forced to readjust; odds … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
After hiking 10 consecutive times totaling 500 basis points, the Jerome Powell-led Fed hinted at a pause on Wednesday. Markets are now pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by year-end. Powell – focused on inflation – promptly dashed hopes for rate … Continued
Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2023 (data is now current, with publication this week of two weeks’ worth of data). 10-year note: Currently net short 571k, up 63.7k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his … Continued
The two-day FOMC meeting ends today. Unlike calls from some major brokers not to raise, the policy-setting body in all probability will hike by 25 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. More importantly, … Continued
It is an FOMC week this week. Fed funds futures expect the one-year tightening cycle to terminate with a 25-basis-point hike this time; by June, the Fed is already expected to ease, with 2023 ending at 3.68 percent and 2024 … Continued