Last Thursday’s CPI report lit a fire under US stocks. It was as if the FoMO phenomenon was in play in a seasonally strong period. But it is early to adopt a full risk-on mode. By Friday, the S&P 500 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 298.3k, up 50.6k. It is beginning to look like FOMC members are no longer on the same page as they probably were until just … Continued
Equity bulls keep wishing for a pivot that keeps eluding. As things stand, bears are probably eyeing the June lows at a minimum. But at some point, the selling needs to be faded as the season turns favorable. No sooner … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 247.7k, down 65.7k. The FOMC meets this week. The November 1-2 meeting is the year’s seventh scheduled meeting. One more remains after this – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, equities seem unsure about the next major move. At this stage, markets want Powell and team to take the fed funds rate north of four percent by year-end. If the Fed manages to sound even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 199.9k, up 83.9k. The FOMC this week delivered what officials had telegraphed the rate-setting body would do. The fed funds rate was raised by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.7k, up 333. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth of the eight scheduled meetings this year. The Federal Reserve will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 14, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 205.5k, down 60.7k. The Federal Reserve this week raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5 percent to … Continued