Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued
January ended up 1.6 percent. Historically, an up January bodes well for the rest of the year. This may very well be the case this year, but one should not be oblivious of how overbought the S&P 500 is. Following … Continued
January was up strongly this year. For the believers of the January barometer, this means an up year – or at least the odds are heavily stacked for that outcome. Nevertheless, the fact remains that a sticky inflation could throw … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 274.9k, up 10.2k. Last Wednesday when the FOMC concluded its meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced there was “quite a bit of room” … Continued
January was ugly, with the S&P 500 down 5.3 percent. The January barometer is predicting a down year this year. But the track record of a down January is mixed; both 2020 and 2021 began the year with a down … Continued
Two months into the year, January and February have traded similarly – early strength followed by weakness in the dying sessions. Equity bulls’ inability to hold on to gains comes amidst a spike in long rates. Short rates are behaving, … Continued
Reversing the prior week’s weakness, major US equity indices put up strong performance last week. The S&P 500, for instance, defended a rising trend line from last March. VIX collapsed, landing on low-20s, a breach of which opens the door … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.7k, up 21.8k. So far so good from bond bears’ perspective (from price point of view). After having failed just under one percent for … Continued
The January barometer is not boding well for US equity bulls. That said, they can take solace in the fact that the maxim’s record is poor when January is down versus when it is up. Besides, the first five sessions … Continued
Up 3.3 percent at one time, the S&P 500 ended January down 0.2 percent. ‘As January goes, so goes the year’ adage is not fail-safe but worth paying attention to. Not the least because the index rallied nearly 29 percent … Continued