In U.S. equities, several sentiment measures are flashing red. The difficulty in using these as a signal is that they have been doing so for a while, even as U.S. stocks continue to rally to new and newer highs. Since … Continued
Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media. Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued
Two thousand and seventeen has gotten off to a good start. U.S. stocks quickly shook off the nervous energy of the last week of December. On December 27, the S&P 500 large cap index had a go at the December … Continued
Seven weeks of sideways action on the S&P 500 large cap index has been resolved. Last Friday, the index dropped 2.5 percent, for a weekly drop of 2.4 percent. This comes on the heels of an important breakout in July. … Continued
That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued
A crucial test probably lies ahead for the S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1). The index, trapped in a sideways pattern since essentially February last year, broke out nearly a month ago – potentially a huge development, with the … Continued
After a 13-session, heady rally off June 27th lows, U.S. stocks are beginning to reek of complacency. The question is, is it now time to turn contrarian or things might stay complacent for a little while longer? Take put-to-call ratios. … Continued
Off February 11th lows through recent highs, U.S. stocks rallied handsomely, ranging from nearly 23 percent on the Russell 2000 small cap index to nearly 17 percent on the S&P 500 large cap index. Probably enough to take care of … Continued
The magnitude of the equity rally the past couple of months has surprised many. Off the February 11th low through Thursday’s high, the S&P 500 index rallied 15 percent. This, despite the fact that equity flows into U.S.-based funds have … Continued
Around the August lows in U.S. equities, several sentiment indicators looked washed out. For instance, the bulls’ count in Investors Intelligence’s survey dropped to 24.7 percent in the September 29th week – the lowest since late December 2008 (although bears … Continued