Of Similarities And Differences Between 2015 And 2011, Latter Outweigh

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Around the August lows in U.S. equities, several sentiment indicators looked washed out.  For instance, the bulls’ count in Investors Intelligence’s survey dropped to 24.7 percent in the September 29th week – the lowest since late December 2008 (although bears … Continued

Bulls Have More To Worry Long-Term Than If August Lows Hold

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With all the hand-wringing over whether or not the August lows will hold, this is the least of bulls’ worries.  Bigger challenges probably lie ahead. Of the big four – the S&P 500 index, the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq composite, … Continued

NYSE Margin Debt Near All-Time Highs — Implications For Stocks, C&I Loans

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

NYSE margin debt just made an all-time high of $507.2 billion in April.  It fell 1.6 percent in May.  This was the first month-over-month drop in four months.  In the first five months this year, it grew nearly $43 billion.  … Continued

BBG poll of 54% expecting U.S. markets to outperform this year in line with giddy NAAIM sentiment

posted in: Equities | 0

Bloomberg poll: international investors most bullish on U.S. markets in more than five years Giddy sentiment in agreement with message coming out of NAAIM and II Inflows from overseas key; as of November they are MIA Some interesting tidbit came … Continued

Persistently rising SPX vs decelerating contribution from sources of capital

posted in: Credit, Equities | 3

NYSE margin debt only increased $3.3bn in November.  The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent in the month.  Except for brief ups and downs toward the middle of 2014, margin debt has essentially gone sideways for the first 11 months last … Continued

As stocks sell off, NAAIM members essentially already all-in

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Yesterday was the first time since April the S&P 500 Index violated its 50-day moving average – both simple and exponential.  This was the first test since May, yet there was hardly any resistance from the bulls.  Sellers simply overwhelmed … Continued