Selling The Rip And Buying The Dip Within Months-Long Box Has Worked On Russell 2000, Which Is At/Near Crucial Support

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The Russell 2000 has been going back and forth within a rectangle for a while now. Selling the rip and buying the dip within this box has worked. Once again, the index is at/near support. Traders continue to sell the … Continued

S&P 500 On Verge Of Breakout; Bulls Not Fazed By CPI Report, FOMC Meeting On Deck

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This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued

S&P 500’s Divergence With Historically Reliable Metrics Possibly Caused By Fed’s Bond-Buying Program, Which Is Being Tapered

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The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued

Equities Rejoice – Fed To Taper Bond Purchases But In No Rush To Take Punch Bowl Away

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On FOMC day, major equity indices posted fresh highs. Bulls were assured by Chair Powell that the Fed will start tapering but is in no rush to take the interest-rate punch bowl away. Yet another session, yet another high! On … Continued

10-Tear T-Yield Likely Hit Its High In March

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The Fed is under intense pressure to not only taper but to do so with aggression. Going by the prior three iterations of QE, the 10-year tends to peak mid-way through the program. In March, rates touched 1.77 percent. Last … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 141.3k, down 39.9k. Minutes for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting are due out next Wednesday. During the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell set the stage … Continued

Going By Prior 3 Iterations Of QE, 10-Year T-Yield’s March High Could Prove To Be Important In Current QE

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On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued

After 4 Up Weeks, Gold At Crucial Juncture – Pause Likely Before $1,920s Get Taken Out

Gold has rallied for four straight weeks – up more than 14 percent from early March. Last week, the metal just about tested crucial resistance at $1,920s. Conditions – daily in particular – are overbought, and a pause is the … Continued

Fed Walking A Very Tightrope

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The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued