Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent. It offered €2 … Continued
Large-caps keep making new highs. Should small-caps, which currently sit at crucial juncture, manage to break out, risk-on sentiment can get a tailwind, driving several indicators – already extended – to dangerously extended territory. US equity indices keep making new … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. … Continued
Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased. Besides being a first cut in nearly 11 years, the move has the potential to also impact the bank’s balance sheet and commercial bank earnings. The Fed is all set to reduce its … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Gold is regaining its lost luster. Last week, it staged what could turn out to be a major breakout. If genuine, the metal in due course could head toward retracing 61.8 percent of the September 2011-December 2015 decline. Gold ($1,400.10) … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued
The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady. No surprise there. But the bank was even more dovish than markets expected. That was a surprise. Even more surprising is how stocks reacted. The Fed Wednesday left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued