Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is doing very well so far this year – up 22.4 percent. This compares with a rise of 10.3 percent for the Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent for the S&P 500 large cap index, and a … Continued
U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption grew 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter in 2Q17 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.14 trillion, but growth has been uneven since peaking at $2.23 trillion in 4Q14. Since that peak … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew 0.7 percent in 1Q17. This was the weakest quarter since a negative reading three years ago. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts growth snapping back to 4.1 percent in 2Q17. Irrespective of quarterly swings, growth remains … Continued
Tuesday was J.P. Morgan’s (JPM) annual investor day. Bloomberg pointed out that CFO Marianne Lake talked about loans depleting a little bit – the growth rate, that is. Core loans were up 15 percent last year. She sees 10 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times. Take your pick. The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued
U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14. They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4). Profits peaked … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in 3Q16, owing primarily to inventory buildup and increase in exports. The two respectively contributed 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent to real GDP growth. Real final sales to domestic … Continued
Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
U.S. banks’ commercial & industrial loans dropped $6.5 billion month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion (Chart 1). These loans have come a long way – rising from a cycle low of $1.18 trillion in … Continued