Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 30, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 850.4k, up 78.8k. Non-commercials are hanging on to a losing trade. The 10-year treasury yield retreated last October after touching 4.33 percent. Just a … Continued
Tech is radiating this year and small-caps are in slumber. A ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is nearing a March 2000 record high. A failure here can begin a process of unwinding the overbought condition the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued
The S&P 500 is up nearly 21 percent from last October’s low. Yet, US-based equity funds continue to bleed, and margin debt is lower from October through April. If equity bulls cannot mend the situation soon, non-commercials, with most net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 692.4k, down 39.3k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 731.7k, down 17.4k. This week, April’s CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) were published. Both showed continued decelerating trend in inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders are heavily on the short side. They can get forced to cover or get squeezed if equity longs had their way. It is not going to be easy for the latter. Having already spent a nice bit … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 545.1k, up 133.7k. The 10-year treasury yield sits at a crucial juncture. It ended this week at 3.48 percent. Around 3.4 percent lies important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 21, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 228.2k, up 22.7k. Jerome Powell this week testified on monetary policy in front of Congress. Just last week, after raising the fed funds rate … Continued