As Jerome Powell indicated imminent tapering but not rate hikes, small-caps were bid up last Friday. The Russell 2000 is rangebound within a rectangle. A breakout can cause short squeeze. Should one occur, bulls need cooperation from the A-D line. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 20, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 88.9k, up 32.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fifth policy meeting, and three more remain. A lot has happened since … Continued
Monday’s selloff was bought – again. Since May last year, the 50-day on the S&P 500 has elicited buying interest nine times. Next week’s June-quarter results from the top six US companies will decide if this trade works this time … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 29, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 60k, up 57.6k. FOMC minutes for the June 15-16 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The meeting was a surprise to the markets in … Continued
As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Major equity indices had a good week last week. Stocks are currently in the midst of many crosscurrents, not to mention inflation, aggressive monetary policy and several extended metrics. Even though they have broken out of, or are near, important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 22, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 2.3k, up 36.6k. Doves have won – for now. In the wake of a slightly hawkish tilt in last week’s FOMC meeting in which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Major US equity indices are itching to break out. The question is, what then? Indices remain stretched on several timeframes. Longs have shown dogged determination but shorts are likely to decide if the momentum will have the staying power. Equity … Continued
Last week’s excellent earnings results from five of the top six US companies were unable to lift equities, which had rallied big into the reporting season. With major equity indices extended on several timeframes, weakness could be brewing. The Nasdaq … Continued