March 20, 2008: 114.1 August 27, 2015: 112.6 September 7, 2016: 112.0 On October 11, 2007, the S&P 500 large cap index entered a bear market peaking at 1576.09. It would not bottom until March 9, 2009 when the tape … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Prior to this week, after hawkish comments from several FOMC members, it looked like the August jobs report was the sole make-or-break data … Continued
Of late, there is a spring in small-caps’ step. Can it be sustained? In August, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1239.91) jumped 1.6 percent, even as the S&P 500 large cap index inched down 0.1 percent and the Dow … Continued
At first glance, Charts 1 and 2 look identical. With a slight difference. The red line is represented by the S&P 500 large cap index in both. The green bars are different. In Chart 2, these bars represent non-commercials’ weekly … Continued
Jackson Hole came and went. At the annual confab, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, last Friday seemed to agree with preceding hawkish messages from three prominent FOMC members – Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, William Dudley, New York Fed president, and John Williams, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In the Greenspan era, traders did not have to deal with the kind of mixed messages they do today. Back then, the message … Continued
Short squeeze played a big role in the equity rally since the February lows this year. Charts 1 and 2 are proof. Since the February 11th bottom through the all-time high this Tuesday, the Nasdaq composite rallied just north of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued
Back in 2013, by August 20th, non-commercials had built 116,317 contracts in net shorts in VIX futures. In the next 10 weeks (by October 29th), net shorts dropped to 39,673 (Chart 1). Intra-day, spot VIX jumped from 11.83 on August … Continued