Bulls have consistently climbed wall of worry, that is, elevated short interest Past 3 months, Naz/NYSE short interest sideways, shorts giving up? Hedgopia Risk Reward Index pokes head out of reward zone Post-FOMC, Wednesday sure felt like a session in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week. Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent. And these traders, in agreement, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired. Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued
Equity bulls seek to justify why Nasdaq of 2015 is not as bubbly as was Nasdaq of 2000 Bubble elsewhere – in VC, in biotech, and most importantly, in easy money Excesses driven by ‘this time is different’ psychology never … Continued
March starts off by notching new highs for most U.S. indices Giddy investor sentiment – from pros to newsletters to individuals If past is guide, it pays to pull in horns when crowd becomes worry-free Uh-oh! The Nasdaq composite on … Continued
’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again. They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period. Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued
Chair Yellen brings up issue of “elevated” P/E and P/S ratios In 1996 and 2014, markets ignored Fed chiefs’ valuation warnings Tight R between SPX and operating earnings, which probably peaked in 3Q14 One of the nuggets in Federal Reserve … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent. Early this year, … Continued
Equities are choppy. The S&P 500 large cap index (2099.68) is essentially flat for the week. Participation is thin. Volume is anemic. Fresh on the heels of last week’s breakouts, indices are trying to build on those gains. But conviction … Continued