Sentiment indicators are beginning to come in from elevated levels. This both preceded and followed the latest three-day selloff in stocks. Wednesday, bulls tried to stem the damage by buying. Immediately ahead, VIX is the one to watch. Last week, … Continued
Bears are putting foot down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March. All this followed massive gains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 13.5k, up 85.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.72 percent) remains rangebound between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. There was some excitement among bond bears … Continued
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics currently. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued
The recovery in the economy from recent lows has been uneven. In equities, the S&P 500 (large cap) rallied to a new high last Friday, while the Russell 2000 (small cap) was rejected at a crucial resistance. Amidst this, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 5.5k, down 86.6k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.71 percent) had a strong week, up 15 basis points, but not enough for a range breakout. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months. … Continued
Volume is anemic, but ultimately price is the final arbiter. A 0.7-percent rally from Tuesday’s close will have filled a February 24th gap, which is likely to happen in the sessions ahead. After that, bulls will be eyeing the February … Continued